I've been way behind on my self-imposed deadlines for the 2009 MLB prediction pieces on my blog, and I'm not sure whether I'll be able to catch up before the season starts because I have a ton of work to do for my classes this weekend. But that doesn't mean I can't have a little fun as well, so I present to you my Top Nine Bold Predictions on the Mets. I decided to do nine because it's my favorite number...and because I couldn't come up with ten. So sue me. Anyway, here they are:
9. Jerry Manuel will win the hearts of Mets fans…if he hasn’t done so already. The thing you have to love about Manuel is that he’s not afraid to put himself out there and take some pretty bold stands: during his first spring training as Mets skipper, he proclaimed young Daniel Murphy to be a better hitter than veteran Ryan Church, flirted with the idea of making Jose Reyes the #3 hitter, and elected to hit scrubby 2B Luis Castillo eighth instead of his customary slot at the top of the order. Granted, some of Manuel has reversed many of his pre-season proclamations (like batting Reyes 3rd) and some of his remarks to the media can come across as self-aggrandizing. Still, he’s already proven himself to be a more charismatic personality than the robotic Willie Randolph (not that that’s hard to do) and a more creative manager of his ballclub. It remains to be seen whether Manuel’s dynamism will translate to improved results on the field, but the early returns are promising.
8. The Mets and Phillies will have at least one…and possibly even two bench clearing brawls this season. The rivalry between New York and Philadelphia has definitely been kicked up a notch or three in the past few seasons, with a back-and-forth war of words between the players in the media, and a palpable dislike between the teams when they take the field. With the latest chapter in the rivalry written by Cole “Pretty Boy” Hamels, when he referred to the Mets as “choke artists” during the offseason, the bad blood between the Mets and Phils has only thickened. In a way, it’s surprising that the teams haven’t gotten into a physical altercation by now—I suppose one reason for that is that Mets teams have been, by and large, a laid-back group. But it looks like that’s going to change this year, as Omar Minaya has brought in some fiery personalities this offseason (K-Rod, Putz, and now Sheffield) who don’t seem likely to take the Phillies crap lying down. That, to my mind, is all to the good, since Philadelphia once again looms as the Mets biggest obstacle in the NL East this year, and if they hope to overcome them this year the Mets can’t be afraid to go toe to toe with them, both figuratively and literally.
7. The left side of the Mets infield will be as good as they’ve ever been…but the right side will be a liability. As a Mets fan, it’s a treat to watch Reyes and Wright play: not only are they two of the best young players in baseball they’re also home-grown Mets, so there’s a feeling of pride in having watched them come up through the system and following their development from prospects to superstars. And there’s no reason to think that they can’t continue performing at a high level for years to come, as they have both youth and talent on their side. None of the things I just wrote necessarily apply to the guys on the other side of the infield, Delgado and Castillo. Sure, Delgado is still a feared slugger (maybe even a Hall of Fame caliber hitter) who had a torrid second-half for the Mets in ’08. But unless he has indeed discovered the fountain of youth, I have my doubts as to whether at age 37 he can have another 30 HR/100 RBI campaign. On the other hand, I actually think Castillo will be better than last year based on the simple fact that he can’t be any worse than he was in ’08. I expect him to be a moderately useful player who will be able to play some D, hit some singles, and get on base a little bit—but that still won’t be enough to justify the lavish contract Omar bestowed upon him last offseason. It actually bums me out to think that we’ll be stuck with him for another two years, because at this point there isn’t much of a chance management can unload him on another team.
6. Johan Santana will not be the Johan of old...just an older Johan Santana. This isn’t to say that Johan won’t be good—even at reduced capacity, the guy is still an ace-level pitcher and one of the top five or top ten starters in the sport. However, if he was Secretariat two or three years ago, it’s safe to say that the rest of the field has caught up to him a little bit. Elbow tightness slowed Santana this spring, and while it won’t prevent him from making his Opening Day start against the Reds it does present an area of concern. The fact of the matter is, with Santana turning 30 this season he’s at the point in his career where a player’s performance starts to decline, especially if you’re a pitcher who’s thrown the number of innings Johan has. Again, I still think Santana can be the ace of a championship caliber team, but at the same time I don’t think he’ll ever again approach the dominance of his Twin days.
5. A Mets starting pitcher will make the All-Star team…and his name is Mike Pelfrey. Last season, after a rough start coming out of the gate, Pelfrey started living up to the hype that made him the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft, finishing the year second on the team to Santana in wins, innings pitched, and ERA. The Mets need him to be at least that good in ’09, as the rest of the starters are either inconsistent (Ollie Perez), injury prone (John Maine), or just plain sucky (Livan Hernandez). There’s also concern that because Pelfrey pitched 200 innings for the first time in his professional career that he may suffer from the dreaded “Verducci Effect,” which states that young pitchers who throw 30 or more innings than they had the previous year tend to regress the following year. But if there’s any pitcher who may prove to be the exception to that rule it’s Pelfrey, who will a) have the benefit of a much better bullpen than he had last year, which should reduce his IP, and b) have the experience of a full season in the majors under his belt, which should allow him to pace himself better and allow his infield defense to do more of the work for him. Last year you could make the case that Pelfrey got snubbed for the All-Star team because voters didn’t want to give the slot over to a young, unproven guy; this year, Pelfrey will establish himself as a strong No. 2 behind Santana and earn an All-Star nod this time around.
4. The Mets ‘pen will be a three-headed monster staring K-Rod, Putz…and Bobby Parnell. If you look at the history of teams with great bullpens, you find that they had relied on three top relievers: the Nasty Boys with Myers, Charlton and Dibble, the mid ‘90s Yankees with Rivera, Nelson, and Stanton, the late ‘90s Mariners with Sasaki, Nelson and Rhodes, and so on. We already know that K-Rod and Putz will be great, bur the real revelation will be the relatively unheralded Bobby Parnell. Of all the guys in the Mets ‘pen besides the Dynamic Duo, Parnell has the greatest breakout potential, as he is armed with a fastball in the high 90’s and a sick slider that can make hitters look foolish. Parnell only got a tiny sip of coffee in the majors last year, but he impressed Jerry Manuel in September and in spring training to the point that he’s likely to be used as a “crossover reliever” (i.e., someone who can pitch to both lefties and righties). Thus, Mets games could very well be six-inning affairs this year, where Jerry pulls the starter to set up his lethal endgame of Parnell-Putz-K-Rod. The Mets will need that endgame to be dominant, as the starting rotation is still shaky at best.
3. The corner OF’s will be found to be lacking…until a man named F-Mart arrives to save them. I have as big a man-crush on Daniel Murphy as the next Mets fan, but I’m skeptical as to whether he’ll hit with enough pop to hold down a power position like LF. Enthusiasm should be further curbed when you consider that Murphy came up from Double A with less than 1,000 AB’s in the minors, so I’m gonna need to see a larger body of work from him before I’m ready to proclaim him the next Ted Williams. And in the other corner, you have a guy (Church) who had two concussions last year…and who may not even be that good when healthy. As I type this, the word is out that the Mets have signed Gary Sheffield, which would be great news if this were 1999 and not 2009. Who knows how much, if anything, he has left? Thus, I see our young OF phenom, Fernando Martinez, stepping into the breach sometime around the All-Star break and making an impact analogous to the one made by Miguel Cabrera on the ’03 Marlins. High expectations? Maybe, but it says here that the kid is good enough to somewhat fulfill them.
2. A Met will win the NL MVP…and his name is Carlos Beltran. Amazingly, Beltran seems to go under the radar for a guy who plays one of the most glamorous positions (CF) in all of baseball, and in a town with a long and distinguished tradition of great players at the position: Joe D, Mickey, the Duke, Lance Johnson. (Ha-ha, just kidding about that last one…just wanted to see if you were paying attention). It may have something to do with playing with younger, flashier teammates (Wright, Reyes), or with guys who seem to more naturally command the spotlight (Santana). Whatever the case, there are few CF’s—indeed, few players in baseball regardless of position—who possess the all-around talents of Beltran. He gets a bum rap for not being a “clutch” player but he damn near carried the team into the playoffs last September, furthering enhancing his rep as a strong down-the-stretch performer that began with the ’04 Astros. With another strong finish being viewed in the context of a division title, this ought to be the year that Beltran finally gets the props that he deserves.
1. The Mets will win the NL East…but lose the NL pennant. If you read my NL East predictions from a few weeks back, you already know my reasoning for why I think this is the year the Mets break through and win the division. (And if you haven’t, go check it out on my blog and then we’ll resume…I can wait…OK, done then? Good. What took you so long, anyway?) Here’s how I see the NL playoffs shaping up: the Mets will defeat the NL West winning Giants, while the Cubs beat the NL Wild Card Phillies, setting up a match-up between the Mets and Cubs for a trip to the World Series. While I’d like to be a Mets loyalist and pick my team to beat Chicago, I think this might actually, finally, no lie, be the Cubbies year. Plus, as bad as the Curse of the Billy Goat is, it doesn’t hold a candle to the SI Jinx—and since they picked the Mets to win it all this year, ipso facto, they won’t. But 2010 will definitely be our year!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment