MLB Season Preview Part III

Part III of my 2009 season preview presently, and perhaps later tonight my review of WATCHMEN. But first, the baseball:

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
It’s an odd-numbered year, so it must mean it’s time for the Cleveland Indians to be good again. Seriously, just take a look at their records over the past few years: in ‘05, they won 93 games despite not making the playoffs, finishing second in the division to the eventual world-champion Chicago White Sox; in ’06 they won 78 games, finishing fourth in the division; in ’07 they won the Central with 96 wins, losing to the ALCS to the eventual world-champion Boston Red Sox; and finally in ’08 they broke even at .500 and finished third in the division. So what does MLB’s most bipolar franchise have to offer us in ‘09? Well, for starters the Tribe returns the same core group of players—with the notable exception of ace C.C. Sabathia—that won the division in ’07, plus adding to the mix a pair of ex-Cubbies in Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood to shore up two of the team’s biggest weaknesses last season (third base and the closer’s role, respectively). Cleveland is rock-solid up the middle with catcher Kelly Shoppach, double-play combo Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta, and center fielder extraordinaire Grady Sizemore; if C/1B Victor Martinez and DH Travis Hafner can return somewhat to their ’07 forms, the team will have enough offensive firepower to overtake their divisional foes. The pitching staff, led by last year’s Cy Young award-winner Cliff Lee, is solid if unspectacular, and if Wood can make it through the year without his arm falling off, then the team should be able to finish games this season. Add it all up, and you have a team that is by no means the clear-cut favorite in the AL Central, but has enough positives going for it to win a middling division. Cleveland should enjoy it while they can, because if recent history is any indication the good times won’t carry over into the following season.

2. Minnesota Twins
Always the bridesmaid but never the bride. Minnesota often puts together teams good enough to compete for the division, and occasionally for higher stakes in the playoffs—but due mainly to financial limitations imposed by penny-pinching ownership they’ve never quite good enough to be a serious World Series contender. As a result, the team squandered the prime years of Johan Santana’s career, and the way things look now they’re going to do the same with the new millennium M&M boys, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Indeed, while that dynamic duo will continue to be the bedrock for a good Twinkies team, there’s no one on the club, other than Johan 2.0 (aka Francisco Liriano) and ace closer Joe Nathan, whom you would consider an above-average player. Maybe if raw-tools fiend Carlos Gomez is able to refine his game, and former No.1 overall pick Delmon Young can rediscover his, and the young pitching staff can take it to the next level, the Twins will be able to seriously challenge Cleveland in the Central. Even if none of those outcomes take place, the Twins are still good enough to be standing at the altar, but once again not handsome or talented enough to kiss the playoffs.

3. Detroit Tigers
Considered by many experts to be a World Series favorite entering into last season after the team’s blockbuster trade with the Florida Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers came crashing back down to earth in ’08 by finishing last in the Central, 14.5 games behind the division-winning White Sox. Cabrera did his part in leading the AL in homers—an impressive feat when you consider that he played half his games in spacious Comerica Field—but Willis flamed out and had to be sent down to the minors to iron out his pitching mechanics. Because Detroit was such a disappointment, many of the same experts who lauded the Marlins trade are now predicting another cellar-dwelling finish for the team this year. If those experts overrated the Tigers last season, they’re probably underrating them this season. In Cabrera and CF Curtis Granderson Detroit has two of the best young players in the game, along with a veteran supporting cast—Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco—that will help the Tigers score their fair share of runs (if not the 1,000+ previously predicted of them). Unfortunately, the pitching staff will prove to be the team’s undoing, as was the case last year; Verlander and Bonderman are sort of the AL’s answer to Prior and Wood in that they’re neither consistent or healthy at the same time, and behind those two the rest of the staff profiles as below-average. To draw a musical metaphor, the Tigers will be a team with plenty of hits but without the solid-gold record to really be a smash success in the Motown City.

4. Kansas City Royals
For the first time since ’03, Kansas City didn’t finish last in the AL Central in managing a 75-87 record; such a win-loss total may not seem like much, but when you consider that the franchise averaged over 100 losses from ’04-‘06, and had 90-plus losses in ’07, that sort of success may be deemed parade worthy by the long-suffering Royals faithful. That isn’t to say that there isn’t legitimate cause for optimism in assessing the franchise’s future: KC’s young pitching staff, fronted by double-digit winners Gil Meche and Zack Grienke, has a chance to be solid, and the bullpen is led by the best closer most people have never heard of in Joakim Soria. However, the offense in ‘08 was simply terrible—malcontent OF Jose Guillen was tops on the club in HR and RBI with 20 and 97 respectively, but was only able to manage an execrable .300 OBP. One of KC’s key off-season trade acquisitions, Florida’s Mike Jacobs, amassed a higher HR total (32) and almost as many RBI’s (93) than Guillen, but with an OBP that was just slightly worse (.299). If some of the team’s vaunted young players, namely Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, are finally able to fulfill their promise, then things might start to get interesting from an offensive standpoint. But even if those youngsters do elevate their games, in all likelihood the Royals will still be not ready for prime-time players in ‘09.

5. Chicago White Sox
Despite putting together a World Series winning team in ‘05, Kenny Williams remains one of the most underrated GM’s in the game today. Williams has only solidified his strong talent evaluator bonafides the past few seasons by acquiring young players such as LHP John Danks (who led the staff in ERA last season) and OF Carlos Quentin (the club leader in HR and RBI in ‘08) for practically nothing. White Sox fans will have to hope their GM is able to work such magic again this year, as there is a retooling process taking place on the South Side. The team’s offseason trade of Javy Vazquez to the Braves has left the team severely short-handed in the pitching staff, and there are sizable question marks at 2B, 3B and CF (and perhaps at SS as well if ROY runner-up Alexei Ramirez is unable to handle the transition from 2B on a full-time basis). Granted, a number of the veterans who led the Pale Hose to the championship a couple of years ago, such as veteran sluggers Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, are still around—but the writing’s already on the wall that unless the team has a strong first-half, which appears unlikely, they’ll be heading off to new teams at the trade deadline. Despite returning most of the key players who helped the team win the Central division in ’08, it looks as if the White Sox will do a competitive 180 and finish last in ’09. However, in the long run it’s probably for the best; as we discussed in the prediction piece for the Blue Jays, the worst place to be if you’re a professional sports team is betwixt and between contention and also-ran status. As last season’s playoffs proved, the White Sox were not good enough to take a serious run at the AL powerhouses, so being the canny GM that he is Williams decided to take one small step back this season in order to take one giant leap towards contention in the near future. It may not bring Barack Obama or his fellow White Sox fans much joy in ‘09, but like our pragmatic 44th President Williams is willing to make the tough decisions today that will lead to a brighter tomorrow and for that the team is fortunate to have him running the show.