We are found
until we are lost
and never recovered
like that utopic garden
like childhood dreams
like friends and lovers
like a moment unwritten
that exists temporally
and held in memory
before fading, irrevocably,
from history’s collectivity.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Mixed-Up Southern Fried Confessional Blues
My chest, she bears a heavy load
My chest, she bears a heavy load
It’s all I can to do to slouch or to stand
Got so many problems and whisky tumblers drowning in me
And there’s no one in my apartment to pull me by the hand
My back, it is marked with many blows
My back, it is marked with many blows
And so many chimpanzees, it’s a wonder I can hardly breathe
For my previous transactions, the banker had one final payment to bestow
He had me balance out his equations so that they evened up to three
My hands are bent like crooked bows
My hands are bent like crooked bows
They don’t play good anymore, and almost never seem to agree
This one hand wants to work for art’s sake
But the other one is palming up for the fee
My feet got all twisted together in two
Not sure how it happened, except that my ankles got wasted—
If only it were animate, how swiftly it’d be sued
To a sentence endlessly recycled, never starting to conclude
My head, so battered and bruised
Got kicked around like a tomato can—
But as dark as mine were, hers were even gruffer
Until her punchline like a battering ram left me dazed and confused
My spirit—Halleluiah—is alive and it is free
As my pastor the scientist said to me (and I’m sure you’ll agree)
That it remains most untouched by interminable temporality
The words he said might be true, or else they might be wack
Yet despite the woes inside my chest and all upon my back
And all throughout my hands and outside my feet and beyond my head
I prefer the pain of all of it to the fact of being dead.
My chest, she bears a heavy load
It’s all I can to do to slouch or to stand
Got so many problems and whisky tumblers drowning in me
And there’s no one in my apartment to pull me by the hand
My back, it is marked with many blows
My back, it is marked with many blows
And so many chimpanzees, it’s a wonder I can hardly breathe
For my previous transactions, the banker had one final payment to bestow
He had me balance out his equations so that they evened up to three
My hands are bent like crooked bows
My hands are bent like crooked bows
They don’t play good anymore, and almost never seem to agree
This one hand wants to work for art’s sake
But the other one is palming up for the fee
My feet got all twisted together in two
Not sure how it happened, except that my ankles got wasted—
that my toes were tipsy is a claim without basis—
It’s hard to disagree, yet so I put my word to the woodIf only it were animate, how swiftly it’d be sued
To a sentence endlessly recycled, never starting to conclude
My head, so battered and bruised
Got kicked around like a tomato can—
a more manly metaphor—like a wrestling man—
In any case, the jokes between she and I got rougherBut as dark as mine were, hers were even gruffer
Until her punchline like a battering ram left me dazed and confused
My spirit—Halleluiah—is alive and it is free
As my pastor the scientist said to me (and I’m sure you’ll agree)
That it remains most untouched by interminable temporality
The words he said might be true, or else they might be wack
Yet despite the woes inside my chest and all upon my back
And all throughout my hands and outside my feet and beyond my head
I prefer the pain of all of it to the fact of being dead.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
MLB Season Preview Part III
Part III of my 2009 season preview presently, and perhaps later tonight my review of WATCHMEN. But first, the baseball:
AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
It’s an odd-numbered year, so it must mean it’s time for the Cleveland Indians to be good again. Seriously, just take a look at their records over the past few years: in ‘05, they won 93 games despite not making the playoffs, finishing second in the division to the eventual world-champion Chicago White Sox; in ’06 they won 78 games, finishing fourth in the division; in ’07 they won the Central with 96 wins, losing to the ALCS to the eventual world-champion Boston Red Sox; and finally in ’08 they broke even at .500 and finished third in the division. So what does MLB’s most bipolar franchise have to offer us in ‘09? Well, for starters the Tribe returns the same core group of players—with the notable exception of ace C.C. Sabathia—that won the division in ’07, plus adding to the mix a pair of ex-Cubbies in Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood to shore up two of the team’s biggest weaknesses last season (third base and the closer’s role, respectively). Cleveland is rock-solid up the middle with catcher Kelly Shoppach, double-play combo Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta, and center fielder extraordinaire Grady Sizemore; if C/1B Victor Martinez and DH Travis Hafner can return somewhat to their ’07 forms, the team will have enough offensive firepower to overtake their divisional foes. The pitching staff, led by last year’s Cy Young award-winner Cliff Lee, is solid if unspectacular, and if Wood can make it through the year without his arm falling off, then the team should be able to finish games this season. Add it all up, and you have a team that is by no means the clear-cut favorite in the AL Central, but has enough positives going for it to win a middling division. Cleveland should enjoy it while they can, because if recent history is any indication the good times won’t carry over into the following season.
2. Minnesota Twins
Always the bridesmaid but never the bride. Minnesota often puts together teams good enough to compete for the division, and occasionally for higher stakes in the playoffs—but due mainly to financial limitations imposed by penny-pinching ownership they’ve never quite good enough to be a serious World Series contender. As a result, the team squandered the prime years of Johan Santana’s career, and the way things look now they’re going to do the same with the new millennium M&M boys, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Indeed, while that dynamic duo will continue to be the bedrock for a good Twinkies team, there’s no one on the club, other than Johan 2.0 (aka Francisco Liriano) and ace closer Joe Nathan, whom you would consider an above-average player. Maybe if raw-tools fiend Carlos Gomez is able to refine his game, and former No.1 overall pick Delmon Young can rediscover his, and the young pitching staff can take it to the next level, the Twins will be able to seriously challenge Cleveland in the Central. Even if none of those outcomes take place, the Twins are still good enough to be standing at the altar, but once again not handsome or talented enough to kiss the playoffs.
3. Detroit Tigers
Considered by many experts to be a World Series favorite entering into last season after the team’s blockbuster trade with the Florida Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers came crashing back down to earth in ’08 by finishing last in the Central, 14.5 games behind the division-winning White Sox. Cabrera did his part in leading the AL in homers—an impressive feat when you consider that he played half his games in spacious Comerica Field—but Willis flamed out and had to be sent down to the minors to iron out his pitching mechanics. Because Detroit was such a disappointment, many of the same experts who lauded the Marlins trade are now predicting another cellar-dwelling finish for the team this year. If those experts overrated the Tigers last season, they’re probably underrating them this season. In Cabrera and CF Curtis Granderson Detroit has two of the best young players in the game, along with a veteran supporting cast—Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco—that will help the Tigers score their fair share of runs (if not the 1,000+ previously predicted of them). Unfortunately, the pitching staff will prove to be the team’s undoing, as was the case last year; Verlander and Bonderman are sort of the AL’s answer to Prior and Wood in that they’re neither consistent or healthy at the same time, and behind those two the rest of the staff profiles as below-average. To draw a musical metaphor, the Tigers will be a team with plenty of hits but without the solid-gold record to really be a smash success in the Motown City.
4. Kansas City Royals
For the first time since ’03, Kansas City didn’t finish last in the AL Central in managing a 75-87 record; such a win-loss total may not seem like much, but when you consider that the franchise averaged over 100 losses from ’04-‘06, and had 90-plus losses in ’07, that sort of success may be deemed parade worthy by the long-suffering Royals faithful. That isn’t to say that there isn’t legitimate cause for optimism in assessing the franchise’s future: KC’s young pitching staff, fronted by double-digit winners Gil Meche and Zack Grienke, has a chance to be solid, and the bullpen is led by the best closer most people have never heard of in Joakim Soria. However, the offense in ‘08 was simply terrible—malcontent OF Jose Guillen was tops on the club in HR and RBI with 20 and 97 respectively, but was only able to manage an execrable .300 OBP. One of KC’s key off-season trade acquisitions, Florida’s Mike Jacobs, amassed a higher HR total (32) and almost as many RBI’s (93) than Guillen, but with an OBP that was just slightly worse (.299). If some of the team’s vaunted young players, namely Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, are finally able to fulfill their promise, then things might start to get interesting from an offensive standpoint. But even if those youngsters do elevate their games, in all likelihood the Royals will still be not ready for prime-time players in ‘09.
5. Chicago White Sox
Despite putting together a World Series winning team in ‘05, Kenny Williams remains one of the most underrated GM’s in the game today. Williams has only solidified his strong talent evaluator bonafides the past few seasons by acquiring young players such as LHP John Danks (who led the staff in ERA last season) and OF Carlos Quentin (the club leader in HR and RBI in ‘08) for practically nothing. White Sox fans will have to hope their GM is able to work such magic again this year, as there is a retooling process taking place on the South Side. The team’s offseason trade of Javy Vazquez to the Braves has left the team severely short-handed in the pitching staff, and there are sizable question marks at 2B, 3B and CF (and perhaps at SS as well if ROY runner-up Alexei Ramirez is unable to handle the transition from 2B on a full-time basis). Granted, a number of the veterans who led the Pale Hose to the championship a couple of years ago, such as veteran sluggers Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, are still around—but the writing’s already on the wall that unless the team has a strong first-half, which appears unlikely, they’ll be heading off to new teams at the trade deadline. Despite returning most of the key players who helped the team win the Central division in ’08, it looks as if the White Sox will do a competitive 180 and finish last in ’09. However, in the long run it’s probably for the best; as we discussed in the prediction piece for the Blue Jays, the worst place to be if you’re a professional sports team is betwixt and between contention and also-ran status. As last season’s playoffs proved, the White Sox were not good enough to take a serious run at the AL powerhouses, so being the canny GM that he is Williams decided to take one small step back this season in order to take one giant leap towards contention in the near future. It may not bring Barack Obama or his fellow White Sox fans much joy in ‘09, but like our pragmatic 44th President Williams is willing to make the tough decisions today that will lead to a brighter tomorrow and for that the team is fortunate to have him running the show.
AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
It’s an odd-numbered year, so it must mean it’s time for the Cleveland Indians to be good again. Seriously, just take a look at their records over the past few years: in ‘05, they won 93 games despite not making the playoffs, finishing second in the division to the eventual world-champion Chicago White Sox; in ’06 they won 78 games, finishing fourth in the division; in ’07 they won the Central with 96 wins, losing to the ALCS to the eventual world-champion Boston Red Sox; and finally in ’08 they broke even at .500 and finished third in the division. So what does MLB’s most bipolar franchise have to offer us in ‘09? Well, for starters the Tribe returns the same core group of players—with the notable exception of ace C.C. Sabathia—that won the division in ’07, plus adding to the mix a pair of ex-Cubbies in Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood to shore up two of the team’s biggest weaknesses last season (third base and the closer’s role, respectively). Cleveland is rock-solid up the middle with catcher Kelly Shoppach, double-play combo Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta, and center fielder extraordinaire Grady Sizemore; if C/1B Victor Martinez and DH Travis Hafner can return somewhat to their ’07 forms, the team will have enough offensive firepower to overtake their divisional foes. The pitching staff, led by last year’s Cy Young award-winner Cliff Lee, is solid if unspectacular, and if Wood can make it through the year without his arm falling off, then the team should be able to finish games this season. Add it all up, and you have a team that is by no means the clear-cut favorite in the AL Central, but has enough positives going for it to win a middling division. Cleveland should enjoy it while they can, because if recent history is any indication the good times won’t carry over into the following season.
2. Minnesota Twins
Always the bridesmaid but never the bride. Minnesota often puts together teams good enough to compete for the division, and occasionally for higher stakes in the playoffs—but due mainly to financial limitations imposed by penny-pinching ownership they’ve never quite good enough to be a serious World Series contender. As a result, the team squandered the prime years of Johan Santana’s career, and the way things look now they’re going to do the same with the new millennium M&M boys, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Indeed, while that dynamic duo will continue to be the bedrock for a good Twinkies team, there’s no one on the club, other than Johan 2.0 (aka Francisco Liriano) and ace closer Joe Nathan, whom you would consider an above-average player. Maybe if raw-tools fiend Carlos Gomez is able to refine his game, and former No.1 overall pick Delmon Young can rediscover his, and the young pitching staff can take it to the next level, the Twins will be able to seriously challenge Cleveland in the Central. Even if none of those outcomes take place, the Twins are still good enough to be standing at the altar, but once again not handsome or talented enough to kiss the playoffs.
3. Detroit Tigers
Considered by many experts to be a World Series favorite entering into last season after the team’s blockbuster trade with the Florida Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers came crashing back down to earth in ’08 by finishing last in the Central, 14.5 games behind the division-winning White Sox. Cabrera did his part in leading the AL in homers—an impressive feat when you consider that he played half his games in spacious Comerica Field—but Willis flamed out and had to be sent down to the minors to iron out his pitching mechanics. Because Detroit was such a disappointment, many of the same experts who lauded the Marlins trade are now predicting another cellar-dwelling finish for the team this year. If those experts overrated the Tigers last season, they’re probably underrating them this season. In Cabrera and CF Curtis Granderson Detroit has two of the best young players in the game, along with a veteran supporting cast—Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco—that will help the Tigers score their fair share of runs (if not the 1,000+ previously predicted of them). Unfortunately, the pitching staff will prove to be the team’s undoing, as was the case last year; Verlander and Bonderman are sort of the AL’s answer to Prior and Wood in that they’re neither consistent or healthy at the same time, and behind those two the rest of the staff profiles as below-average. To draw a musical metaphor, the Tigers will be a team with plenty of hits but without the solid-gold record to really be a smash success in the Motown City.
4. Kansas City Royals
For the first time since ’03, Kansas City didn’t finish last in the AL Central in managing a 75-87 record; such a win-loss total may not seem like much, but when you consider that the franchise averaged over 100 losses from ’04-‘06, and had 90-plus losses in ’07, that sort of success may be deemed parade worthy by the long-suffering Royals faithful. That isn’t to say that there isn’t legitimate cause for optimism in assessing the franchise’s future: KC’s young pitching staff, fronted by double-digit winners Gil Meche and Zack Grienke, has a chance to be solid, and the bullpen is led by the best closer most people have never heard of in Joakim Soria. However, the offense in ‘08 was simply terrible—malcontent OF Jose Guillen was tops on the club in HR and RBI with 20 and 97 respectively, but was only able to manage an execrable .300 OBP. One of KC’s key off-season trade acquisitions, Florida’s Mike Jacobs, amassed a higher HR total (32) and almost as many RBI’s (93) than Guillen, but with an OBP that was just slightly worse (.299). If some of the team’s vaunted young players, namely Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, are finally able to fulfill their promise, then things might start to get interesting from an offensive standpoint. But even if those youngsters do elevate their games, in all likelihood the Royals will still be not ready for prime-time players in ‘09.
5. Chicago White Sox
Despite putting together a World Series winning team in ‘05, Kenny Williams remains one of the most underrated GM’s in the game today. Williams has only solidified his strong talent evaluator bonafides the past few seasons by acquiring young players such as LHP John Danks (who led the staff in ERA last season) and OF Carlos Quentin (the club leader in HR and RBI in ‘08) for practically nothing. White Sox fans will have to hope their GM is able to work such magic again this year, as there is a retooling process taking place on the South Side. The team’s offseason trade of Javy Vazquez to the Braves has left the team severely short-handed in the pitching staff, and there are sizable question marks at 2B, 3B and CF (and perhaps at SS as well if ROY runner-up Alexei Ramirez is unable to handle the transition from 2B on a full-time basis). Granted, a number of the veterans who led the Pale Hose to the championship a couple of years ago, such as veteran sluggers Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, are still around—but the writing’s already on the wall that unless the team has a strong first-half, which appears unlikely, they’ll be heading off to new teams at the trade deadline. Despite returning most of the key players who helped the team win the Central division in ’08, it looks as if the White Sox will do a competitive 180 and finish last in ’09. However, in the long run it’s probably for the best; as we discussed in the prediction piece for the Blue Jays, the worst place to be if you’re a professional sports team is betwixt and between contention and also-ran status. As last season’s playoffs proved, the White Sox were not good enough to take a serious run at the AL powerhouses, so being the canny GM that he is Williams decided to take one small step back this season in order to take one giant leap towards contention in the near future. It may not bring Barack Obama or his fellow White Sox fans much joy in ‘09, but like our pragmatic 44th President Williams is willing to make the tough decisions today that will lead to a brighter tomorrow and for that the team is fortunate to have him running the show.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Communal Manifesto
I want to make love to the collective unconscious
I want words not to make literal sense as convention would allow
I want to consume enough experience to feel myself living
Instead of mere existence in the mind-numbing now
There are enough trees in the forest that fall without notice
There are enough forms to weigh the planet down by the pound
But there aren’t enough souls who make a difference
Who find freedom in expressions that governments silence without sound
They want to keep you locked up in advertising and other mental prisons
They want you to believe that individuality should get lost in a crowd
They want your submission to a capitalist conception of democracy
And stifle your freeborn voice so that it cannot proclaim itself aloud
So let us all make love to the collective unconscious
Let us choose liberty over tyranny, rebellion against social bounds
Let us recognize that thinking freely is true salvation
When all is said and done god is not lost when we have been found
I want words not to make literal sense as convention would allow
I want to consume enough experience to feel myself living
Instead of mere existence in the mind-numbing now
There are enough trees in the forest that fall without notice
There are enough forms to weigh the planet down by the pound
But there aren’t enough souls who make a difference
Who find freedom in expressions that governments silence without sound
They want to keep you locked up in advertising and other mental prisons
They want you to believe that individuality should get lost in a crowd
They want your submission to a capitalist conception of democracy
And stifle your freeborn voice so that it cannot proclaim itself aloud
So let us all make love to the collective unconscious
Let us choose liberty over tyranny, rebellion against social bounds
Let us recognize that thinking freely is true salvation
When all is said and done god is not lost when we have been found
Sunday, March 8, 2009
MLB Season Preview Part II
As promised in our last edition, a look at the NL East:
NL EAST
1. New York Mets
FOUR…FUCKING…GAMES. That’s been the combined difference in the standings separating the Mets and Phillies the past two seasons. Of course the Mets have nobody but themselves to blame for missing the playoffs in ’07 and in ’08 by putting together consecutive shitty Septembers, and more power to the Phillies for capitalizing on their misfortunes both times. But lest the Phils and their fan base get too cocky, they should keep that preceding statistic in mind, along with this one: in the head-to-head matchup between the two teams the past two seasons, Philadelphia holds a slight two game edge at 19-17, with New York going 11-7 against them in ’08. Thus, although the Phillies enter the season as the defending World Series champs, the gap between the two teams is nowhere near as large as it is commonly perceived. Last season, the Mets’ Achilles heel was their execrable bullpen, but during the off-season Omar Minaya upgraded this area in a major way by signing K-Rod as a free agent and trading for J.J. Putz. As a result, the team went from having one of the worst ‘pens in the NL to the best late-inning duo in all of baseball. (Best late-inning duo in all of baseball? Search your MLB rosters, Luke; you know it to be true.) The Mets will need every bit of that competitive edge, because while they have a good team they’re far from being a perfect one: the C and 2B spots are offensive sinkholes, the corner OF’s are underpowered, and Delgado’s performance can pancake at any time. But with Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Santana, Pelfrey, and that aforementioned bullpen duo, the Mets have as fine a talent core as any team in the NL and should be good enough to ascend back to the top of the NL East standings and into the playoffs. Finally.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
When you compare the core players on both the Phillies and the Mets, you’re struck by how evenly matched they are: each team has a trio of in-their-prime superstar position players (Howard, Utley, and Rollins for the Phils/Beltran, Wright, and Reyes for the Metsies) and a hard-throwing, lefty ace pitcher (Hamels/Santana). Yet the reason Philadelphia won the division last year—besides a Mets ‘pen that was to the late innings of games what a match is to a pile of oily rags—was that they got better performances out of their supporting cast in ’08 than New York did. Now, I’m not saying that the Phillies were a fluke last season…aw, hell, who am I kidding? I think the they’re in for some major regression this season, particularly in the OF; in fact, I’ll eat my Mets cap if guys like Victorino and Werth are nearly as good or as healthy, respectively, as they were last season. Furthermore, I think the Philly front office made a huge mistake in letting Met-killer Pat Burrell walk as a free agent and replacing him with Raul Ibanez, who is not only five years older than Burrell but is just as bad defensively and who makes the team more vulnerable to left-handed pitching. Also, as good as Lidge and the rest of the Phillies ‘pen was last season, there’s no way they’ll be able to sustain that level of success two years in a row. But the biggest blow to Philadelphia’s chances of repeating as NL East champs may be the injury questions surrounding their best all-around player in Utley; originally slated to be out until around the All-Star break due to hip surgery, he’s now shooting to be starting at 2B on Opening Day. If that comes to pass, then NY and Philly will be in a dogfight for the division all season—but if Utley misses any significant playing time, or if the hip hinders his performance, then that probably gives the Mets the edge they need to put the Phillies in their rear-view mirror and force them to settle for the NL Wild Card. *
3. Atlanta Braves
The Braves have a number of assets that make you think they can pose a serious challenge to the Mets and Phillies in the division: a Hall-of-Fame (albeit injury prone) 3B in Chipper Jones, one of the best hitting C in the game in Brian McCann, a solid keystone combo in Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar, and the makings of a good starting rotation fronted by offseason acquisitions Derek Lowe and Javy Vazquez. But on the flipside, Atlanta has an equal number of weaknesses that will compromise their ability to contend: an injury prone (albeit Hall-of-Fame) 3B, a weak hitting 1B, a craptacular OF, and a ‘pen that was just as leaky as the Mets was last season but that unlike New York’s didn’t get upgraded during the offseason. More than maybe any other team in the league, any success the Braves experience this season will be determined by whether or not their key contributors are able to stay healthy and productive, and if they’re able to shore up the weak spots on the roster either through improved performances by the incumbents or by better replacements found either on the farm or on the trade market. If everything goes just right for them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atlanta in the hunt for the Wild Card and maybe even the division—nor would I be surprised to see the dead weight on the roster drag them down to another fourth-place finish. I don’t think things are going to be nearly that bad for them this season, but on the other hand I don’t think they’re going to go all that well either, so I’ll split the difference and predict that they’ll finish in the middle of the divisional pack in ’09.
4. Florida Marlins
To quote Brendan Frasier’s character from The Mummy, “who the hell are these guys?” Despite continually having the one of the lowest payrolls in the majors, the Fish somehow manage to find ways to win ballgames. However, an offseason fire sale in Florida—gosh, I feel like I’ve heard that song before—has purged the team of several of the veterans that helped them get over .500 in ’08. None of the players traded away were exactly Hall-of-Famers, or even All-Stars, but as a result the team is left with major questions at 1B, the OF, and in the ‘pen. At least Florida still has its All-Star middle infield in Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, and a young, hard-throwing pitching staff that could one day help the team vault into contention (until they’re inevitably traded away in the next Marlin fire sale, of course). But with the superior financial resources of the NL East favorites, as well as rosters that boast their fair share of young (and in several cases, more established) talent, it would seem to be a tall order to ask the Fish to finish above .500 again this season.
5. Washington Nationals
Generally speaking, in professional sports there are two species of bad teams. The first type of team, as a result of poor management and/or cheap ownership, is stocked with woefully untalented players who would be selling life insurance were it not for the bad franchise cutting their checks: think the Detroit Lions in the NFL, the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA, or the Pittsburgh Pirates in MLB. The second type of bad team has players who are talented, who may even be All-Star caliber performers, but who operate in environments so dysfunctional from the top-down that it pollutes every aspect of the organization: in other words, your Oakland Raiders, your New York Knicks (back when Isiah was running the show, at any rate), and yes Virginia, your 2009 Washington Nationals. By now you’re probably already familiar with the story of Esmailyn Gonzalez, who was once considered a top prospect with the Nats and whom the team gave $1.4M to sign with them until it was recently revealed that he lied about his name and age, thus making him not a prospect at all. The entire incident left egg, and a rotten one at that, on the face of Nats brass; as of this writing, Jose Rijo, the man held responsible for discovering Gonzalez, was fired and GM Jim Bowden resigned in disgrace. While the Gonzalez scandal is unlikely to have much of a direct impact on the Nats’ players themselves, to quote Keith Law it does beg the question: Is there anyone in that organization with a moral compass that points north? At this point, it looks like guys like Zimmerman and Milledge are gonna have to bide their time until the franchise gets its act together—or failing that, high-tail it outta there as soon as they become free agents. Either way, it’s shaping up to be another long year for the baseball team in the nation’s capital.
*Of course, I recognize that the NL East race can likewise shift in the Phillies favor if Santana misses any significant time for the Mets, but as of this writing it looks as if he’ll make his Opening Day start (knock on wood).
NL EAST
1. New York Mets
FOUR…FUCKING…GAMES. That’s been the combined difference in the standings separating the Mets and Phillies the past two seasons. Of course the Mets have nobody but themselves to blame for missing the playoffs in ’07 and in ’08 by putting together consecutive shitty Septembers, and more power to the Phillies for capitalizing on their misfortunes both times. But lest the Phils and their fan base get too cocky, they should keep that preceding statistic in mind, along with this one: in the head-to-head matchup between the two teams the past two seasons, Philadelphia holds a slight two game edge at 19-17, with New York going 11-7 against them in ’08. Thus, although the Phillies enter the season as the defending World Series champs, the gap between the two teams is nowhere near as large as it is commonly perceived. Last season, the Mets’ Achilles heel was their execrable bullpen, but during the off-season Omar Minaya upgraded this area in a major way by signing K-Rod as a free agent and trading for J.J. Putz. As a result, the team went from having one of the worst ‘pens in the NL to the best late-inning duo in all of baseball. (Best late-inning duo in all of baseball? Search your MLB rosters, Luke; you know it to be true.) The Mets will need every bit of that competitive edge, because while they have a good team they’re far from being a perfect one: the C and 2B spots are offensive sinkholes, the corner OF’s are underpowered, and Delgado’s performance can pancake at any time. But with Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Santana, Pelfrey, and that aforementioned bullpen duo, the Mets have as fine a talent core as any team in the NL and should be good enough to ascend back to the top of the NL East standings and into the playoffs. Finally.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
When you compare the core players on both the Phillies and the Mets, you’re struck by how evenly matched they are: each team has a trio of in-their-prime superstar position players (Howard, Utley, and Rollins for the Phils/Beltran, Wright, and Reyes for the Metsies) and a hard-throwing, lefty ace pitcher (Hamels/Santana). Yet the reason Philadelphia won the division last year—besides a Mets ‘pen that was to the late innings of games what a match is to a pile of oily rags—was that they got better performances out of their supporting cast in ’08 than New York did. Now, I’m not saying that the Phillies were a fluke last season…aw, hell, who am I kidding? I think the they’re in for some major regression this season, particularly in the OF; in fact, I’ll eat my Mets cap if guys like Victorino and Werth are nearly as good or as healthy, respectively, as they were last season. Furthermore, I think the Philly front office made a huge mistake in letting Met-killer Pat Burrell walk as a free agent and replacing him with Raul Ibanez, who is not only five years older than Burrell but is just as bad defensively and who makes the team more vulnerable to left-handed pitching. Also, as good as Lidge and the rest of the Phillies ‘pen was last season, there’s no way they’ll be able to sustain that level of success two years in a row. But the biggest blow to Philadelphia’s chances of repeating as NL East champs may be the injury questions surrounding their best all-around player in Utley; originally slated to be out until around the All-Star break due to hip surgery, he’s now shooting to be starting at 2B on Opening Day. If that comes to pass, then NY and Philly will be in a dogfight for the division all season—but if Utley misses any significant playing time, or if the hip hinders his performance, then that probably gives the Mets the edge they need to put the Phillies in their rear-view mirror and force them to settle for the NL Wild Card. *
3. Atlanta Braves
The Braves have a number of assets that make you think they can pose a serious challenge to the Mets and Phillies in the division: a Hall-of-Fame (albeit injury prone) 3B in Chipper Jones, one of the best hitting C in the game in Brian McCann, a solid keystone combo in Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar, and the makings of a good starting rotation fronted by offseason acquisitions Derek Lowe and Javy Vazquez. But on the flipside, Atlanta has an equal number of weaknesses that will compromise their ability to contend: an injury prone (albeit Hall-of-Fame) 3B, a weak hitting 1B, a craptacular OF, and a ‘pen that was just as leaky as the Mets was last season but that unlike New York’s didn’t get upgraded during the offseason. More than maybe any other team in the league, any success the Braves experience this season will be determined by whether or not their key contributors are able to stay healthy and productive, and if they’re able to shore up the weak spots on the roster either through improved performances by the incumbents or by better replacements found either on the farm or on the trade market. If everything goes just right for them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atlanta in the hunt for the Wild Card and maybe even the division—nor would I be surprised to see the dead weight on the roster drag them down to another fourth-place finish. I don’t think things are going to be nearly that bad for them this season, but on the other hand I don’t think they’re going to go all that well either, so I’ll split the difference and predict that they’ll finish in the middle of the divisional pack in ’09.
4. Florida Marlins
To quote Brendan Frasier’s character from The Mummy, “who the hell are these guys?” Despite continually having the one of the lowest payrolls in the majors, the Fish somehow manage to find ways to win ballgames. However, an offseason fire sale in Florida—gosh, I feel like I’ve heard that song before—has purged the team of several of the veterans that helped them get over .500 in ’08. None of the players traded away were exactly Hall-of-Famers, or even All-Stars, but as a result the team is left with major questions at 1B, the OF, and in the ‘pen. At least Florida still has its All-Star middle infield in Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, and a young, hard-throwing pitching staff that could one day help the team vault into contention (until they’re inevitably traded away in the next Marlin fire sale, of course). But with the superior financial resources of the NL East favorites, as well as rosters that boast their fair share of young (and in several cases, more established) talent, it would seem to be a tall order to ask the Fish to finish above .500 again this season.
5. Washington Nationals
Generally speaking, in professional sports there are two species of bad teams. The first type of team, as a result of poor management and/or cheap ownership, is stocked with woefully untalented players who would be selling life insurance were it not for the bad franchise cutting their checks: think the Detroit Lions in the NFL, the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA, or the Pittsburgh Pirates in MLB. The second type of bad team has players who are talented, who may even be All-Star caliber performers, but who operate in environments so dysfunctional from the top-down that it pollutes every aspect of the organization: in other words, your Oakland Raiders, your New York Knicks (back when Isiah was running the show, at any rate), and yes Virginia, your 2009 Washington Nationals. By now you’re probably already familiar with the story of Esmailyn Gonzalez, who was once considered a top prospect with the Nats and whom the team gave $1.4M to sign with them until it was recently revealed that he lied about his name and age, thus making him not a prospect at all. The entire incident left egg, and a rotten one at that, on the face of Nats brass; as of this writing, Jose Rijo, the man held responsible for discovering Gonzalez, was fired and GM Jim Bowden resigned in disgrace. While the Gonzalez scandal is unlikely to have much of a direct impact on the Nats’ players themselves, to quote Keith Law it does beg the question: Is there anyone in that organization with a moral compass that points north? At this point, it looks like guys like Zimmerman and Milledge are gonna have to bide their time until the franchise gets its act together—or failing that, high-tail it outta there as soon as they become free agents. Either way, it’s shaping up to be another long year for the baseball team in the nation’s capital.
*Of course, I recognize that the NL East race can likewise shift in the Phillies favor if Santana misses any significant time for the Mets, but as of this writing it looks as if he’ll make his Opening Day start (knock on wood).
Friday, March 6, 2009
Lo, There Shall Be...A Blog!
And welcome to OW!, a semi-regular blog dedicated to the musings/rantings of your author, Anthony J. Punt. On this blog, I will be exploring a wide range of topics, including politics, literature, sports, interesting and/or bizarre moments from pop culture, and whatever else I feel like getting off at my chest. In addition, from time to time I will be posting creative and scholarly works in progress. Really, you should expect this space to be the virtual literary equivalent of a Kwik-E-Mart--so if you're not interested in the topic I'm going on about that particular day, chances are I'll be offering something more to your liking on another occasion. Your comments are always appreciated, of course, and I thank you for taking the time to read this.
So now that we've gotten those formalities out of the way, I wanted to kick things off by talking a little baseball. With the season fast approaching, I plan on devoting the first half-dozen posts to dissecting each of the 30 MLB teams as well as offering my predictions as to where they will finish in their respective divisions this year. Because I'm such a rebel, rather than organizing my analysis of the teams by league as many pre-season predictors might, I'll be doing so by geographic region: thus, I'll be starting with the AL East, followed by the NL East, AL Central, NL Central, and so on. Basically, one of my main motivations in doing things this way is that I get to discuss my Mets as early as possible (spoiler alert: I'm picking them to win the NL East this year). So without further ado, here's my look at the AL East for 2009:
AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
I love the off-season moves the Red Sox made in signing John Smoltz, Brad Penny, and Takashi Saito, all talented veteran pitchers coming off injury, to low-risk, one year contracts. They provide tremendous depth to a pitching staff that already was the best in the AL last year; even on the off chance that none of the three vets pan out, the Sawx have well-regarded, hard-throwing youngsters such as Bucholtz, Masterson, and Bowden to step in. About the questionable decision the front office made was re-signing washed-up catcher Jason Varitek, but the move is somewhat defensible considering that there was no one inside the organization (or anyone attainable on the free-agent/trade market) good enough to take his place. Despite that misstep, the Red Sox are more than enough on-field talent to not only win the division, but the pennant as well. Consider this: at the moment, their post-season rotation projects to be Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, and Smoltz, with Penny and Wakefield in the ‘pen. That’s simply sick, and when October rolls around AL lineups that face Boston pitching will experience those feelings of nausea first-hand.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Blame it on a simple twist of fate: the second-best team in the AL resides in the AL East, and it is for that reason alone that they’ll enter the playoffs as the Wild Card. Put it this way: if the Rays were in the AL West, or especially the AL Central, they’d probably win the division by 6 or 7 games. Yet much of the media seems to think that they are a one-year wonder and/or are so star-struck by the shiny new baubles the Yankees bought in the off-season that they can’t see straight. (And that, in a nutshell, why 90-95% of sportswriters are complete morons.) For my money, however, the Rays have the most young talent of any team in baseball, and many of those youngsters, particularly B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria, still have plenty of room to improve. Plus, Tampa Bay’s front office made one of the best value free-agent signings this offseason in Pat Burrell, who as a righty-slugging DH shores up two of the team’s biggest areas of need last season. So in short, the media and the rest of the AL better get used to it—this team is going to be around for quite a while.
3. New York Yankees
When you consider that one-third of the teams in MLB have payrolls less than $70M—not to mention the fact that the country is in a serious economic downturn, but let’s not use that scary “D” word though, you might make people nervous—the Yankees recent $250M off-season shopping spree seems obnoxious even for a franchise that has perfected the art. But take heart, Yankee haters: despite all the millions spent, the franchise is doomed to a Sisyphean fate of pushing towards the top of the division, only to have the Red Sox and Rays knocking them back down to third place. If you need further evidence, just take a look at the roster that the Yankee brass, in their infinite wisdom, have assembled: a starting catcher with a chronically messed-up throwing shoulder, a shortstop who is noticeably slipping both in the field and at the plate, a center field position that’s a sucking black hole, one of the big-name pitchers they just signed (Sabathia) would much rather be playing out on the West Coast, while the other one (Burnett) is both wildly overrated and grossly overpaid…and of course, the third baseman is a walking fucking catastrophe. Furthermore, while Boston and Tampa are stacked with young talent, the only good young players New York has are Robinson Cano, an inconsistent underachiever, and Joba Chamberlain, who is a legit stud and not just a product of the NY hype machine (*cough*PhilHughes*cough*) but who also has injury and endurance questions to go along with that promise. So when you add it all up, you tell me: is there any way the Yankees make the playoffs this year? Or even in the next five?
4. Baltimore Orioles
For the first time in over a decade, Orioles fans have a team to legitimately be excited about: they have the makings of one of the game’s best young OF’s with Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, one of the best 2B and leadoff hitters in baseball in Brian Roberts, and a catching prospect that projects to be a switch-hitting Mike Piazza in Matt Wieters. That’s a pretty tasty core to build around; of course, their pitching is nothing to write home about, so they’ll probably have to win their faire share of 11-10 games in order to keep their head above water in the ultra-competitive AL East. Still, considering that this team has stunk since Davey Johnson left (and that was a looong time ago, kids), if the O’s do nothing other than establish Wieters, Jones, and Pie as solid everyday players, and dig up some kid pitchers from the farm, 2009 should be considered a successful season. And now that I currently reside in the Maryland area, I look forward to closely watching the O’s baby steps towards relevance this season. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and make A Bold Prediction: Baltimore will finish the season with a .500 record. That may not sound like much, but when you consider that the O’s won 68 games last year—and have only averaged 69 wins over the past three seasons—a 13 game improvement starts to seem like a big deal, doesn’t it?
5. Toronto Blue Jays
In NBA parlance, the Blue Jays are the equivalent of an eight-seed in the playoffs: not bad enough record-wise to be one of the bottom-dwellers, but also not good enough talent-wise to be among the league’s elite. In essence, this describes the problem with Toronto’s team: they have plenty of decent little role players but, with the notable exception of ace Roy Halladay, no one whom you would consider a “game changer.” To make matters worse, the Jays don’t have the financial coffers of the Yankees and Red Sox, to say the least, and thus they’re not able to buy their way out of trouble like those two teams can. Toronto’s relative poverty was made painfully evident when the team conceded the loss of their number-two starter, A.J. Burnett, to the Yankees, and not only failed to replace him but didn’t sign any free agents of note. So with all that being said, here’s my Second Bold Prediction: realizing that the franchise is in competitive limbo, the Jays’ front office finally starts to tear down the team in order to build for a brighter (or at least cheaper) future. Thus, one of the biggest X-factors at the July 31st trade deadline will be which teams end up with players the Jays trade away—especially Halladay—while on the flip side, the Blue Jays’ season will be determined by the quality of the prospects they get back in order to start the much-needed rebuilding process.
So now that we've gotten those formalities out of the way, I wanted to kick things off by talking a little baseball. With the season fast approaching, I plan on devoting the first half-dozen posts to dissecting each of the 30 MLB teams as well as offering my predictions as to where they will finish in their respective divisions this year. Because I'm such a rebel, rather than organizing my analysis of the teams by league as many pre-season predictors might, I'll be doing so by geographic region: thus, I'll be starting with the AL East, followed by the NL East, AL Central, NL Central, and so on. Basically, one of my main motivations in doing things this way is that I get to discuss my Mets as early as possible (spoiler alert: I'm picking them to win the NL East this year). So without further ado, here's my look at the AL East for 2009:
AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
I love the off-season moves the Red Sox made in signing John Smoltz, Brad Penny, and Takashi Saito, all talented veteran pitchers coming off injury, to low-risk, one year contracts. They provide tremendous depth to a pitching staff that already was the best in the AL last year; even on the off chance that none of the three vets pan out, the Sawx have well-regarded, hard-throwing youngsters such as Bucholtz, Masterson, and Bowden to step in. About the questionable decision the front office made was re-signing washed-up catcher Jason Varitek, but the move is somewhat defensible considering that there was no one inside the organization (or anyone attainable on the free-agent/trade market) good enough to take his place. Despite that misstep, the Red Sox are more than enough on-field talent to not only win the division, but the pennant as well. Consider this: at the moment, their post-season rotation projects to be Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, and Smoltz, with Penny and Wakefield in the ‘pen. That’s simply sick, and when October rolls around AL lineups that face Boston pitching will experience those feelings of nausea first-hand.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Blame it on a simple twist of fate: the second-best team in the AL resides in the AL East, and it is for that reason alone that they’ll enter the playoffs as the Wild Card. Put it this way: if the Rays were in the AL West, or especially the AL Central, they’d probably win the division by 6 or 7 games. Yet much of the media seems to think that they are a one-year wonder and/or are so star-struck by the shiny new baubles the Yankees bought in the off-season that they can’t see straight. (And that, in a nutshell, why 90-95% of sportswriters are complete morons.) For my money, however, the Rays have the most young talent of any team in baseball, and many of those youngsters, particularly B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria, still have plenty of room to improve. Plus, Tampa Bay’s front office made one of the best value free-agent signings this offseason in Pat Burrell, who as a righty-slugging DH shores up two of the team’s biggest areas of need last season. So in short, the media and the rest of the AL better get used to it—this team is going to be around for quite a while.
3. New York Yankees
When you consider that one-third of the teams in MLB have payrolls less than $70M—not to mention the fact that the country is in a serious economic downturn, but let’s not use that scary “D” word though, you might make people nervous—the Yankees recent $250M off-season shopping spree seems obnoxious even for a franchise that has perfected the art. But take heart, Yankee haters: despite all the millions spent, the franchise is doomed to a Sisyphean fate of pushing towards the top of the division, only to have the Red Sox and Rays knocking them back down to third place. If you need further evidence, just take a look at the roster that the Yankee brass, in their infinite wisdom, have assembled: a starting catcher with a chronically messed-up throwing shoulder, a shortstop who is noticeably slipping both in the field and at the plate, a center field position that’s a sucking black hole, one of the big-name pitchers they just signed (Sabathia) would much rather be playing out on the West Coast, while the other one (Burnett) is both wildly overrated and grossly overpaid…and of course, the third baseman is a walking fucking catastrophe. Furthermore, while Boston and Tampa are stacked with young talent, the only good young players New York has are Robinson Cano, an inconsistent underachiever, and Joba Chamberlain, who is a legit stud and not just a product of the NY hype machine (*cough*PhilHughes*cough*) but who also has injury and endurance questions to go along with that promise. So when you add it all up, you tell me: is there any way the Yankees make the playoffs this year? Or even in the next five?
4. Baltimore Orioles
For the first time in over a decade, Orioles fans have a team to legitimately be excited about: they have the makings of one of the game’s best young OF’s with Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, one of the best 2B and leadoff hitters in baseball in Brian Roberts, and a catching prospect that projects to be a switch-hitting Mike Piazza in Matt Wieters. That’s a pretty tasty core to build around; of course, their pitching is nothing to write home about, so they’ll probably have to win their faire share of 11-10 games in order to keep their head above water in the ultra-competitive AL East. Still, considering that this team has stunk since Davey Johnson left (and that was a looong time ago, kids), if the O’s do nothing other than establish Wieters, Jones, and Pie as solid everyday players, and dig up some kid pitchers from the farm, 2009 should be considered a successful season. And now that I currently reside in the Maryland area, I look forward to closely watching the O’s baby steps towards relevance this season. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and make A Bold Prediction: Baltimore will finish the season with a .500 record. That may not sound like much, but when you consider that the O’s won 68 games last year—and have only averaged 69 wins over the past three seasons—a 13 game improvement starts to seem like a big deal, doesn’t it?
5. Toronto Blue Jays
In NBA parlance, the Blue Jays are the equivalent of an eight-seed in the playoffs: not bad enough record-wise to be one of the bottom-dwellers, but also not good enough talent-wise to be among the league’s elite. In essence, this describes the problem with Toronto’s team: they have plenty of decent little role players but, with the notable exception of ace Roy Halladay, no one whom you would consider a “game changer.” To make matters worse, the Jays don’t have the financial coffers of the Yankees and Red Sox, to say the least, and thus they’re not able to buy their way out of trouble like those two teams can. Toronto’s relative poverty was made painfully evident when the team conceded the loss of their number-two starter, A.J. Burnett, to the Yankees, and not only failed to replace him but didn’t sign any free agents of note. So with all that being said, here’s my Second Bold Prediction: realizing that the franchise is in competitive limbo, the Jays’ front office finally starts to tear down the team in order to build for a brighter (or at least cheaper) future. Thus, one of the biggest X-factors at the July 31st trade deadline will be which teams end up with players the Jays trade away—especially Halladay—while on the flip side, the Blue Jays’ season will be determined by the quality of the prospects they get back in order to start the much-needed rebuilding process.
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